The effects of deportations of dominicans living in irregular conditions in the United States and other macroeconomic variables on remittances received by the Dominican Republic: An econometric analysis: 2014–2024

Abstract

Starting in January 2025, a process of tightening the deportation policy from the United States territory will begin, affecting thousands of regular and irregular Dominican immigrants, putting at risk their job stability and, consequently, the monetary transfers or remittances that enter the territory of the Dominican Republic each month and that contribute so much not only to the livelihood of thousands of families but also to the national economy, so it is right to ask What effects would the deportation of Dominican immigrants from the United States have on the monetary transfers they make to their relatives residing in the Dominican Republic? The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of deportations and other macroeconomic variables on remittances received by the Dominican Republic, using a methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative analysis through the use of a multiple regression econometric model. The main findings of the research suggest that deportations do not have a short-term impact on the reduction of remittances received by the Dominican Republic and that macroeconomic variables such as US GDP and the devaluation of the DR/USD exchange rate have mixed effects that may take longer to be reflected. The improvement in unemployment in the DR has not reduced remittances' dependence on them, highlighting their structural role in the Dominican economy.