Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): January - March
Artículos

Public policies for sustainability in uncertain environments: Proposal of methods for the venezuelan context

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  • Adolfo Javier Cegarra Acosta,
  • Lisbeth Yanira Guerra Unda
Adolfo Javier Cegarra Acosta
Universidad Nacional Experimental de los Llanos Occidentales Ezequiel Zamora
Lisbeth Yanira Guerra Unda
Universidad Nacional Experimental de los Llanos Occidentales Ezequiel Zamora, Venezuela
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51896/ocsi.v7i1.1096

Published 2026-03-18

Keywords

  • government policies,
  • sustainable development,
  • government,
  • strategic planning,
  • decision-making

How to Cite

Cegarra Acosta, A. J., & Guerra Unda, L. Y. (2026). Public policies for sustainability in uncertain environments: Proposal of methods for the venezuelan context. Observatorio De Las Ciencias Sociales En Iberoamérica, 7(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.51896/ocsi.v7i1.1096

Copyright (c) 2026 Adolfo Javier Cegarra Acosta, Lisbeth Yanira Guerra Unda

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Abstract

The formulation of public policies for sustainability in contexts of high volatility and institutional uncertainty, such as Venezuela, faces the systematic failure of traditional rational-linear models of public policy. This article addresses this problem by proposing the Integrated Prospective-Delphi Framework (IPDF), a methodological tool that articulates structural prospective analysis (MICMAC, MACTOR) with the Delphi method under the epistemological principles of Complex Systems Thinking. Through conceptual analysis and theoretical synthesis, this study demonstrates how the recursive integration of systemic diagnosis and stakeholder deliberation allows us to overcome the historical dichotomy between technical rigor and social legitimacy. The result is a dynamic model capable of managing tensions and generating public policy foundations that are simultaneously systemically robust and politically viable, offering a significant contribution to governance of complex problems in the Global South.

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