v. 7 n. 1 (2026): Janeiro - Março
Artigos

Políticas públicas para a sustentabilidade em ambientes incertos: Proposta de métodos para o contexto venezuelano

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  • Adolfo Javier Cegarra Acosta,
  • Lisbeth Yanira Guerra Unda
Adolfo Javier Cegarra Acosta
Universidad Nacional Experimental de los Llanos Occidentales Ezequiel Zamora
Lisbeth Yanira Guerra Unda
Universidad Nacional Experimental de los Llanos Occidentales Ezequiel Zamora, Venezuela
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51896/ocsi.v7i1.1096

Publicado 2026-03-18

Palavras-chave

  • políticas governamentais,
  • desenvolvimento sustentável,
  • governo,
  • planejamento estratégico,
  • tomada de decisão

Como Citar

Cegarra Acosta, A. J., & Guerra Unda, L. Y. (2026). Políticas públicas para a sustentabilidade em ambientes incertos: Proposta de métodos para o contexto venezuelano. Observatorio De Las Ciencias Sociales En Iberoamérica, 7(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.51896/ocsi.v7i1.1096

Copyright (c) 2026 Adolfo Javier Cegarra Acosta, Lisbeth Yanira Guerra Unda

Creative Commons License

Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Resumo

A formulação de políticas públicas para a sustentabilidade em contextos de alta volatilidade e incerteza institucional, como a Venezuela, enfrenta o fracasso sistemático dos modelos tradicionais racionais-lineares de políticas públicas. Este artigo aborda esse problema propondo o Quadro Integrado Prospectivo-Delphi (IPDF), uma ferramenta metodológica que articula a análise prospectiva estrutural (MICMAC, MACTOR) com o método Delphi, sob os princípios epistemológicos do Pensamento de Sistemas Complexos. Por meio de análise conceitual e síntese teórica, este estudo demonstra como a integração recursiva do diagnóstico sistêmico e da deliberação dos stakeholders permite superar a dicotomia histórica entre rigor técnico e legitimidade social. O resultado é um modelo dinâmico capaz de gerir tensões e gerar fundamentos para políticas públicas que sejam, ao mesmo tempo, sistemicamente robustos e politicamente viáveis, oferecendo uma contribuição significativa para a governança de problemas complexos no Sul Global.

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